Compared to global markets from decades ago, markets in today’s era are seeing a progressive decline of tobacco ambitions. As of 2021, smoking is on the decline and may fade away by the next generation, leading to lower cases of highly-prevalent diseases like cancer, according to analysts at Jefferies.
“Smoking has been in decline for the past five decades because of what we call the ESG Squeeze: pressures from societal attitudes, regulation, and taxation,” said one analyst associated with the report.
“If the end of smoking comes from the introduction of RRP, as long as big tobacco is taking its fair share, growth should be just as good, if not better than the past.”
In the new report, analysts speculate that smoking habits may cease entirely within 10 to 20 years, resulting in a complete market wipeout. Furthermore, another group of analysts also predict similar outcomes, with the end of cigarette smoking by 2050 in the United States, some parts of Europe, and Latin America.
“The view that cigarettes could become obsolete is also held by Citigroup Inc., which expects smoking to disappear by 2050 from the U.S., parts of Europe, Australia and large chunks of Latin America if the declining trend seen in recent decades continues,” according to one Bloomberg report of the forecast.